California has been spending more money than ever on TK-12 students. In the last twelve years, the amount spent per student has more than doubled. That streak might end in 2030. A temporary tax on the richest Californians is set to expire, and schools and community colleges could lose somewhere between $2 billion and $5 billion a year. That’s a huge drop, even if some people pretend it won’t hit as hard.
A Push To Keep the Tax Going
The tax was originally passed in 2012 and extended once already. The California Teachers Association isn’t waiting around for lawmakers. They’re trying to put a new measure on the November 2026 ballot to make the tax permanent. They want voters to support “The California Children’s Education and Health Care Protection Act of 2026.” It’s an ambitious move, but they’ve pulled it off before.
Where the Money Actually Goes
Even though supporters call it an “education tax,” the money doesn’t go straight to schools. It first goes into the state’s General Fund. Around 40% of that ends up with schools and community colleges through Proposition 98. The rest supports kids’ health care and other programs. Depending on the economy, the tax brings in $5 billion to $15 billion each year. It’s not steady, and tying so much funding to the top 2% of earners makes the whole system pretty shaky.
Voters Have Seen This Before
Voters approved this tax in 2012 and again in 2016. It passed more easily the second time, and supporters think the political mood today still favors taxing the wealthy. Some think voters will say yes again, especially with concerns about inequality. But assuming it’s an “instant winner” might be overly confident. People’s feelings about taxes can shift fast.
A Second Tax Measure Could Complicate Things
Another group is pushing a different tax idea for 2026: a one-time wealth tax on billionaires. That proposal claims it could raise $100 billion, mostly for health care. It sounds appealing on paper, but two tax measures on the same ballot could confuse voters. When people get confused, they usually vote no. The teachers’ union hasn’t taken a stance yet, but they’re clear about one thing: their main goal is to extend the current income tax.
